The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra) compelled geothermal power producers to cut their optimal electricity output by 511.72 Gigawatt-hours (GWh) in the six months to December 31, 2024, to accommodate larger power imports from Ethiopia.
The caps on power generation limits are commonly referred to as "curtailed power" and involve the intentional reduction or restriction of electricity generation, often from renewable sources like geothermal, wind, and solar, to maintain grid stability and prevent overload.
Data by Epra shows that geothermal plants were forced to cut optimal output by 511.72 GWh between July and December 2024-- which was more than double the 236.21 GWh of foregone generation in a similar window of 2023.
“The increase in curtailment can be largely attributed to increased energy imports during the period. However, curtailment is expected to decrease as nighttime demand rises,” Epra says in the report.
Kenya Power imported 751.95 GWh, mainly from Ethiopia in the period, which was a rise of 79.4 percent from the 419.13 GWh imported in the six months to December 2023.
Electricity curtailment is crucial in ensuring that the national electricity system does not face unnecessary pressure and heightens the possibility of blackouts tied to an overwhelmed transmission system.
This (electricity curtailment) is key to ensuring a balance between demand and generation of electricity. In Kenya, it (curtailment) has in recent years become critical in a bid to protect an aging transmission network.
In Kenya, power curtailment occurs between midnight and 0430 hours when demand is at its lowest and can be attributed to decreased demand or the need to accommodate power from cheaper sources.
Geothermal is the second cheapest source of electricity in the national grid with a unit averaging Sh3.83.
Kenya started importing power from Ethiopia in November 2022 under a 27-year deal. The arrangement is meant to protect Kenya’s electricity security in the wake of increased demand besides ensuring that power prices do not spike and exert pressure on consumers.
Geothermal is the mainstay of Kenya's electricity supply, accounting for at least 40 percent of the national mix, while imports now account for 10 percent.
In Kenya, electricity curtailment mainly affects the geothermal power plants, which are the base load plants in the country.
Epra’s data shows the highest monthly curtailment was in July last year with 117.83 GWh curtailed while the lowest was in December at 57.96 GWh.
The amount of curtailed electricity in the six months ended December was slightly more than half the 902.94 GWh that small businesses consumed in the same period, highlighting the steep challenges that Kenya faces in spurring demand for power between midnight and 0430 hours.
Kenya has previously said that it is betting on increased uptake of electric vehicles to lower the amounts of electricity curtailed.
But demand from electric mobility has grown at a slow pace, using 1.81 GWh or 0.03 percent of the electricity in the six months to December last year compared to 0.32 GWh in the same period of 2023.
