Kenya’s electricity demand is expected to grow at an annual 6.5percent between 2025 and 2027, a new forecast by the International Energy Association (IEA) shows, doubling the 3.2 percent growth pace recorded over the six years from 2018 to 2024 and piling pressure on generation programmes to curb outages.
Electricity peak demand in Kenya hit a record 2,316 megawatts (MW) on February 12, 2025, some 12MW higher than the previous peak of 2,3014MW recorded on January 15, 2025.
“Electricity demand in Kenya rose by an estimated 3.2 percent annually from 2018-2024, and we forecast an annual increase of 6.5 percent during 2025-2027. We anticipate Kenya to continue to see strong growth in renewables, rising annually by six percent in the next three years” said IEA in a newly published forecast.
Kenya Power has attributed the growth in electricity demand to deeper investments in the stabilisation of the national grid and the completion of key projects, including the Kimuka 220/66 kilovott(Kv) substation by the Kenya Electricity Transmission Company, from which the utility built four 66kV feeder lines to serve Nairobi and adjacent counties.
“Looking at the trend, it took nearly two years for the peak demand to grow by 200MW. However, since last June, peak demand has grown by over 116MW. This means that the last eight months alone peak demand has grown by an average of 14.5MW per month” said Kenya Power managing director Joseph Siror in an update.
“Last year, we had seven new peaks, as of December the peak was 2,288MW, by January the peak was 2,304MW.”
The Kenya Power boss said the completion of other projects such as the 33Kv double circuit interconnector between Narok and Bomet and network reinforcement projects have also boosted power consumption.
“The gains from completion of these projects have been complemented by increased connection of new customers to the grid thus resulting in increased demand for electricity,” said Dr Siror.
“The investment in upgrading transmission lines by Kenya Power and Ketraco has resulted in a more stable grid. In the last six months, we also connected over 198,535 new customers to the national grid. With improved grid stability and deployment of various connectivity projects, we expect a steady growth in electricity demand in the short and medium term” the official added.
The IEA forecasts a steady growth of electricity production to cover the rising demand, with renewable sources expected to contribute a major chunk of the output.
“Wind and solar PV experienced the largest yearly generation growth from 2018-2024, at 63percent and 34percent, respectively, and they are expected to continue strong growth over the 2025-2027 period, albeit at lower rates, at 12percent and 28percent, respectively,” IEA said.
“Several wind and solar PV projects are currently under development, including a 42 MW solar PV project in the Seven Forks dam, which is expected to come online in 2027” it added.
Data shows that geothermal power remains the largest source of electricity generation in Kenya, at 41 percent of total generation in 2024. Kenya estimates that it has about 7,000-10,000 MW of untapped geothermal energy in its Rift Valley region.
The Geothermal Development Company aims to develop 465 MW of geothermal capacity in the Menengai steam field over five phases, providing electricity to half a million households. The Menegai III plant (35 MW) began operations in 2023, and Menengai II (35 MW) is slated for completion by 2025.
Additionally, Kenya aims to develop 800 MW in the Baringo Silali geothermal block and to rehabilitate some of its old geothermal power plants to increase output.
Several large hydropower plants are expected to come online in 2031-2032, including the High Grand Falls Power Station with a capacity of 700 MW.
Kenya has a high potential for small-scale hydro, estimated at 3,000 MW, but only 15 MW is currently connected to the national grid.
