Kenyan firms earned a record Sh60.57 billion from textile sales to the United States under African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) last year as President Donald Trump threatens to end the tax and quota-free pact, putting 66,804 jobs at risk.
The 2025 Economic Survey by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics shows that earnings from exports under the Growth and Opportunity Act, expiring in September, grew 19.20 percent over Sh50.82 billion in 2023.
That was the fastest pace of growth since 2018, when exports under Agoa jumped 25.80 percent to nearly Sh41.58 billion.
Kenya is among the major beneficiaries of the expiring preferential trade scheme between the US and Africa, which provides access for about 6,000 different categories of products from poor countries, including 32 in Africa.
Kenya ranked fifth in utilisation rates for Agoa behind Zambia, Lesotho, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Benin in 2021, according to the latest analysis by the US International Trade Commission.
“The volume of apparel exported to the US market under Agoa increased from 97.3 million pieces in 2023 to 116.0 million pieces in 2024. Similarly, the value of apparel exports to the US rose by 19.2 per cent to Sh60.6 billion in 2024,” KNBS analysts wrote in the Economic Survey report released on Tuesday.
The Agoa treaty, initiated under the Bill Clinton administration in 2000 to integrate sub-Saharan Africa into the global economy and wean it off donations, was initially intended to last for 15 years from 2000 before being extended for 10 years in June 2015.
The renewal of the Agoa pact will need approval of the US Congress, controlled by protectionist President Trump’s Republican Party.
The US President’s insistence on a reciprocal tariff policy in trade negotiations has raised anxiety among beneficiaries of the tax- and quota-free Agoa pact over its renewal upon expiry in September.
The pact allows access of more than 6,000 products like food and beverages, wood, plastics and rubber to the US from sub-Saharan Africa. However, Kenya has largely tapped the apparel and macadamia nut lines.
The KNBS report puts the number of garment and apparel companies operating under the Agoa pact at 40 last year, up from 39 the year before. The firms had 66,804 employees, 15.18 percent more than 58,002 jobs in 2023.
The companies that largely operate at the low-tax Athi River-based Export Processing Zones increased their capital investments last year by 21.1 percent to Sh38.27 billion.
President William Ruto last December sought to allay fears among Kenyan firms on renewal of the two-and-a-half-decade deal, but gave no indications of whether or not the tariff structure will likely change under Mr Trump’s protectionist stance.
“I know many of you are wondering whether Agoa is going to be renewed. Let me confirm to you that it will. I have it on the authority of many of my friends in that country and I believe that the new administration is also going to support our Agoa plan,” said Dr Ruto on December 10.
The two countries have been looking to stitch together a bilateral trade agreement ahead of the expiry of Agoa since 2018, but talks have been slowed by political regime change in both countries.
