In a bustling Mombasa office of a renowned shipping company, a mid-level executive named Ahmed frequently discusses his theories that the company's top management is out to get everyone.
He is confident, almost too confident, and never hesitates to share his intricate theories with colleagues. But he also demonstrates his confidence during meetings about work matters even in areas where he is not an expert.
He thinks he knows everything all the time. In terms of company conspiracies, he believes that the higher-ups have a secret plan to cut jobs massively and redirect all funds to an undisclosed project, and he claims to have pieces of elusive evidence to back it up but never shares his purported evidence with anyone else.
His colleagues, wary but intrigued, listen but also maintain a layer of scepticism.
Ahmed's beliefs, although unfounded, might find an explanation in interesting new research by Gordon Pennycook, Jabin Binnendyk, and David Rand.
Their study suggests that overconfidence serves as a significant predictor for belief in conspiracy theories. According to the researchers, people who overestimate their cognitive abilities tend to be more susceptible to such unfounded beliefs.
The research involved eight studies with 4,181 United States-based adults and examined various factors such as intuition, overconfidence, and performance in numeracy and perception tests.
The study found that individuals who overestimated their performance on these tests also had a higher tendency to believe in conspiracy theories.
This relationship remained robust and constant even when accounting for variables like analytic thinking, the need for uniqueness, and narcissism.
Meaning, other more obvious causes were statistically ruled out and overconfidence remained a key component.
Famed organisational psychologist Adam Grant weighs in on the issue, pointing out that critical thinking requires "a healthy diet of intellectual humility."
He emphasises that those who fall for false information often overestimate their reasoning and mathematical skills, thus becoming more susceptible to conspiracy theories.
So, what can be done in a work environment to address the overconfidence issue and stimy organisational conspiracy theories?
Colleagues must exercise vigilance and engage in open, honest dialogue when they notice someone leaning toward conspiracy theories.
Offering alternative perspectives or verified information can sometimes be enough to make the individual question their own beliefs, although approaching the topic delicately remains crucial.
On the other hand, with managers and organisations, the issue demands a much more intentional and integrated approach.
Workshops focusing on critical thinking skills, the value of evidence-based decision-making, and the pitfalls of cognitive biases can be part of the solution.
A confidential reporting system could also be beneficial for employees to report concerns about colleagues who may be propagating false or harmful information.
Further, employers can focus on organisational internal communications so that staff stay regularly informed instead of leaving gaps where rumours and conspiracy theories thrive.
Finally, executives should incorporate a zero-tolerance policy for conspiracy theories and rumours spread by employees.
In conclusion, overconfidence does not just make people susceptible to believing in conspiracy theories, it makes them less likely to question and critically examine their opinions.
They will hold every minor thought as absolute irrefutable truth and often get angry when others disagree with them. It additionally makes them oblivious to the fringe nature of their beliefs.
Both colleagues and organisations have integral roles to play in mitigating the spread of such ideas and fostering an environment where evidence and reason guide beliefs and actions.
This will not just make for a more harmonious workspace, it will likely lead to better decision-making across the board.
Have a management or leadership issue, question, or challenge? Reach out to Dr Scott through @ScottProfessor on Twitter or on email at [email protected].
