Ochieng toils in a Nairobi shipping office where pallets of information need constant and immediate attention. He completes every task on time and his reports prove excellent with high accuracy levels.
When promotion memos get released by headquarters, however, they always bear other colleagues’ names rather than his. Ochieng is puzzled because supervisors barely acknowledge his work but seem to reward others’ only mere modest competency.
On the flip side, Moraa pitches clients at the same shipping company and announces her triumphs before she even opens her slide deck in every meeting.
She prances into meetings with shoulders squared, voice firm, and pronounces assertive forecasts of quarterly growth. Managers are quick to confuse her outward confidence with her inner ability and therefore hand over the firm’s biggest flagship accounts to her stewardship.
Ochieng and colleagues observe that new business prospects get directed her way by headquarters despite performance metrics showing she only equals other staff member performances or even trails behind in some indicators.
Famed business psychologist Jack Nasher explains in his extensive research about perception gaps that confidence cues are employed by observers whenever competence measures obfuscate judgment.
His research finds that pundits who predict success are evaluated as more competent than workers who hedge their projections even when subsequent results fall short.
Sadly, it creates a fake-it -until-you- make- it scenario. Project the best possible outcomes and even if you do not meet the expectations, no one will really remember what you projected anyway.
Why such bewildering outcomes of over predicting and underperforming? Because confirmation bias leads evaluators to interpret ambiguous information in the framework of early impressions, and this enables reputational gains to become locked into people’s brains.
The research thus contends that workers gain recognition only once they have demonstrated self-belief in themselves. Essentially, outward confidence makes observers and supervisors think you have high competence, whether or not it is true.
Many of us can think of some colleagues throughout our careers who certainly did not deserve the accolades they received, but were so overconfident in their own abilities.
Further, researchers Barry Schlenker and Mark Leary asked volunteers to evaluate imaginary students and tennis players. Volunteers read predictions of personal performance, matched predictions against reported outcomes, and then issued competence ratings.
Interestingly, good predictions consistently raised ratings, and modest ones reduced them regardless or not of actual success! Even studies that tried to replicate the results also discovered similar tendencies, provided that bold self-statements did not denigrate others.
What does this mean for our professional lives? Department leaders and teams can operationalise these lessons by charging leaders to go look for quiet talent while still rewarding productive boldness.
Performance reviews can prompt employees to chart future wins with evidence-based optimism rather than irrational exuberance. Reward managers for picking up on more predictive signals that actually tie into future employee success.
Internal workshops can emphasise insidious effects of confirmation bias and encourage multiple streams of information.
Companies that create climates of confident communication in addition to measurable output will retain unsung experts and develop credible champions.
Staff members who are hungry for career growth can practice brief self-affirming language prior to workplace project meetings. They can mentally review their past triumphs, make new forecasts, and assert them during meetings using a decisive firm tone and alongside expansive body posture pushing elbows out and shoulders straight. Self-coaching inquiries like "What skill set raises the bar for my team?" or "Why would clients have confidence in my judgment?" incrementally establish someone’s own personal genuine self-confidence.
Employees need to steer clear of conceit by keeping personal growth in the middle without belittling their co-workers. They must maintain teamwork while still exuding their ability.
In summary, workplaces today are information-rich, but perceptions still determine one’s fate. Even in the 21st century, professionals are fooled by ancient subconscious biases favouring confidence instead of evidence.
Believing the wrong employees comes at the peril of managers who put their eggs into the wrong proverbial staff baskets. Practitioners and organisations that marry real success with looking confident release energy that effort alone can rarely catalyse.
Research reminds all of us practitioners in Kenya that talent only ever fully realises its potential after other people see unshakeable belief behind it. Adopting confident storytelling today, readers will most likely accept greater possibilities tomorrow.
Have a management or leadership issue, question, or challenge? Reach out to Dr. Scott through @ScottProfessor on Twitter or on email | [email protected].
