The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is now the fastest-growing buyer of Kenyan goods, well ahead of the official start of a recently signed bilateral deal aimed at easing trade between the two countries.
Kenya has for years targeted the Middle East’s economic powerhouse — second only to Saudi Arabia — as a major destination for its meat products, tea, fruits and vegetables under its export diversification strategy.
But even before the CEPA takes effect, trade numbers for the early months of 2025 suggest earnings from domestic exports to the UAE are growing at the fastest pace among the seven biggest destinations —the others being Uganda, Pakistan, the Netherlands, the USA, the UK, and Tanzania.
Earnings from goods sold to the UAE grew 37.52 percent to nearly Sh22.90 billion in the first four months of the year, according to data released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), bucking a trend where the overall value of Kenya’s total exports dropped 4.12 percent to Sh373.89 billion.
The data by the State-run statistician shows the earnings were largely boosted by an unusually large order book in April, estimated at Sh10.83 billion — a 214.83 percent jump over a similar month last year.
The export value for goods sold to the UAE in the review month was second only to Uganda’s Sh11. 29 billion, the provisional data shows, beating traditionally big buyers such as Pakistan which predominantly buys tea, and the Netherlands (cut flowers).
The KNBS monthly trade statistics, sourced from the Kenya Revenue Authority, do not indicate the specific exports to the UAE, but last year’s top exports to the Middle East’s economic powerhouse were sheep and goat meat, tea, and fruits such as avocado, pineapples, dates, and figs.
Kenya sold goat and sheep meat products worth Sh9.40 billion to the Emirates in 2024, tea valued at Sh9.38 billion, and fruits worth Sh3.71 billion.
Investments, Trade and Industry Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui has singled out the export of agricultural produce as having the biggest potential for growth in the UAE, citing the oil-rich country’s unfavourable weather conditions.
“They have [temperatures of] 40 degrees and so agriculturally, they are down. We have that advantage, we can grow almost everything,” Mr Kinyanjui told the Nation on May 8. “In five hours by flight, you are in the UAE, and in seven days by sea, you are there; which means our products — avocado, flowers, and vegetables — have a market.”
President William Ruto’s spirited push for a proposed national vaccination drive for livestock last December was largely informed by the potential for Kenya to expand its share of the meat market in the UAE.
“We are determined to carry out the vaccination programme for our livestock in an effort to increase prices for our livestock products and meet international market standards,” Dr Ruto, himself a livestock farmer, said on December 17.
“We are using vaccines produced locally by Kenyan scientists with knowledge in this field. Leaders who have no understanding of the livestock sector and agriculture should spare us their ignorance.”
The plan, which aimed to raise the livestock vaccination rate to 85 percent from an estimated 10 percent, faced resistance with some opposition leaders making sensational claims regarding the vaccine safety.
State officials, however, insisted that the vaccines were aimed at controlling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle and Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) disease, which is also known as sheep and goat plague. PPR is a highly contagious animal disease affecting small ruminants.
“The government has been trying to align [with deal signed with UAE] because one of the entry barriers for meat, for example, to some of these [livestock] markets is the diseases that it could be having,” Mr Kinyanjui said. “So the first thing is to vaccinate, the second thing is to market awareness and the third is to ensure people commercialise their agriculture.”
The UAE has been one of the most visited countries by Dr Ruto since he took power in September 2022, the latest coming in January.
Market access and simplification of procedures that come with the signing of the bilateral trade deal have the potential to enhance the UAE’s grip on Kenya’s export market.
When re-exports of jet fuel are factored, the UAE is already the second-largest destination market for Kenya, only behind neighbouring Uganda, having earned Kenya Sh101.34 billion in total exports last year.
“The UAE also serves as a key logistics and transshipment hub for the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, and the CEPA is expected to further enhance the penetration of Kenyan exports into the wider Middle East and Asia,” the State House said in a statement in January.
