Kenya’s earnings from exports to the US recovered to grow by more than a fifth in the year ended last December, signalling a pick-up in demand ahead of the expiry of the current tax- and quota-free trade deal between the two countries later this year.
Traders sold goods worth Sh72.96 billion to the world’s largest economy in the review period, according to provisional data collated by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, marking a jump of 22.81 percent over Sh59.41 billion the year before.
The increased value of exports to the US represents a rebound from a 21.83 percent fall in 2023 when apparel and textile sales slowed as households battled inflationary pressures on income.
The data, based on trade through the formal exit points as captured by the Kenya Revenue Authority, showed the US as a standout destination market in a year total earnings from domestic exports slowed, growing a modest 3 percent to Sh928.22 billion.
The slowdown was partly helped by a 17 percent appreciation of the shilling against the US dollar in 2024 which meant earnings shrank when converted into local currency.
Kenyan traders to the American markets, however, shrugged off the impact of a weaker dollar to post the fastest growth in earnings amongst top global markets for domestic exports, excluding re-exports, which also include Pakistan, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.
“Kenya's exports to the US recovered between 2023 and 2024. This was due to the resurgence of the US consumer market,” Tobias Alando, chief executive officer of Kenya Association of Manufacturers, said.
The US beat the Netherlands to become the second-largest destination market for Kenya’s domestic exports outside of the East African Community bloc in 2024.
Pakistan, which largely buys Kenya’s tea, retained the country’s top global destination market position with a value of Sh76.26 billion despite a 3.0 percent drop year-on-year.
Domestic exports to the Netherlands, largely cut flowers, were flat, rising a measly 0.11 percent to Sh65.14 billion, according to the KNBS data.
Sales to the US, largely apparel, rebounded in a year uncertainty started rising over the renewal of the quota- and duty-free African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) which expires in September 2025.
The Agoa treaty, initiated under the Bill Clinton administration in 2000 to integrate sub-Saharan Africa into the global economy, was initially intended to last for 15 years from the year 2,000 before being extended for a further 10 years in June 2015.
The renewal of the Agoa pact will need the approval of the US Congress, controlled by protectionist President Donald Trump’s Republican Party.
Congress has historically shown bipartisan support for the preferential trade pact, and this was demonstrated in the Bill tabled in the Senate in April 2024 seeking an extension until 2041 by Senators Chris Coons of Delaware (Democratic Party) and James Risch of Idaho (Republican Party).
Mr Trump’s reciprocal trade policy has raised anxiety amongst Agoa beneficiaries, including Kenya, over the possibility of a modification of the deal in the event Washington elects to renew the pact.
President William Ruto in December sought to allay fears amongst Kenyan firms on renewal of the two-and-a-half-decade trade deal but gave no indications of whether or not the tariff structure will likely change under Mr Trump’s protectionist policy stance.
“I know many of you are wondering whether Agoa is going to be renewed. Let me confirm to you that it will. I have it on the authority of many of my friends in that country and I believe that the new administration is also going to support our Agoa plan,” Dr Ruto said on December 10.
