Coffee Research Institute raises alarm as farms give way to real estate

“Areas around Ngong Hills, Kajiado, National Museum Hill in Nairobi, extending to Gigiri, were all coffee estates and farms,” Dr Gichuru recalls.

Real estate replacing roots

The decline of the coffee industry has led to stagnating production, with annual yields hovering between 38,000 and 51,000 metric tonnes for years.

Just a few kilometres from the CRI headquarters, a billboard advertising prime land for sale stands tall—a stark reminder of how fertile coffee lands are being repurposed for housing and commercial developments.

In the past, he says, CRI collaborated with private stakeholders to establish coffee demonstration farms in areas like Oaklands in Ruiru, Tatu City, Murera in Juja, and Kiamumbi in Kahawa West. All those farms are now gone.

“It’s not just coffee; agriculture in general is being pushed out by urbanisation. Even tea-growing zones are shrinking. Towns are rapidly encroaching on farmland across regions like Embu, Nyeri, Murang’a, Chuka, and Meru,” Dr Gichuru laments.

Dr Gichuru explains that apart from real estate pressure, climate change and the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic have also played a role in reshaping the agricultural landscape. Many landowners, in search of more secure or profitable ventures, have opted to sell or repurpose their farmland.

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Some of the most affected urban and peri-urban areas include Nairobi (around Village Market), Kiambu County (Ridgeways, Thindigua, and Kiambu Road), Thika Road (stretching through Thika), Kakuzi in Murang’a, and towns in Kirinyaga and Nyeri.

Along Thika Road, once known for its vast coffee estates, the skyline now features commercial units, apartments, and business parks.

From Kiambu town to Murang’a, developers are rapidly transforming traditional coffee-growing areas into residential and commercial hubs.

Despite an official estimate by the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) showing a slight increase in land under coffee cultivation—from 109,000 hectares to 114,000 hectares—experts say this does not reflect the true potential of the sector.

In the 1980s, Kenya produced over 100,000 tonnes of coffee cherry from approximately 120,000 hectares. The steady drop in both production and productivity paints a more concerning picture.

“The decline in output and shrinking acreage demonstrate the loss of once-thriving coffee farms,” Dr Gichuru says.

Sakina Hassanali, head of research and development at HassConsult, agrees that land use is shifting due to changing economic incentives. She says that proximity to Nairobi has made former coffee-growing areas like Kiambu especially attractive to developers.

“Land near the city offers value—both for investors and for families looking for affordable housing. It makes sense that developers are targeting these areas,” she says.

But Hassanali also points to a deeper issue: the diminishing profitability of coffee itself.

“Coffee is no longer the lucrative crop it once was. Landowners see more long-term value in building homes or commercial properties on their land,” she says.

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