China, Africa are the next frontier of global supply chain resilience

As global trade architecture continues to shift under the weight of geopolitical rivalry, economic nationalism, and the aftershocks of the pandemic, Kenya stands at the threshold of unprecedented opportunity.

A new logic is emerging—one that questions overreliance on single-source manufacturing and embraces a multipolar supply chain structure.

While Western economies loudly champion “de-risking” and “friend-shoring” to reduce dependency on China, there is a quieter but compelling countercurrent: the growing attractiveness of the Global South, particularly Africa, in global supply chain realignment.

And at the heart of this rebalancing, China remains a crucial player—not as a retreating superpower, but as a pragmatic, long-term partner.

Kenya, with its strategic location, has the potential to evolve into a central logistics and industrial hub, bridging continents and value chains.

Kenya’s modern port facilities in Mombasa and Lamu, bolstered by the Chinese-financed standard gauge railway (SGR), form the physical backbone of a trade corridor that stretches deep into the continent. These are not mere concrete symbols of cooperation—they are platforms for Kenya’s participation in the next chapter of global production and exchange.

The current rhetoric of “decoupling” from China in Western capitals masks a more complex reality.

Even as tariffs, tech restrictions, and investment screening dominate headlines, China remains deeply embedded in the fabric of global commerce. Its firms are not retreating but recalibrating—looking increasingly to the Global South for growth, resilience, and cooperation. Africa, particularly East Africa, is prominently featured in this recalibration.

It is no coincidence that China continues to rank as Kenya’s largest trading partner and one of its most significant sources of infrastructure financing and technical expertise. What is less often acknowledged, however, is that this relationship is evolving—from one focused primarily on construction and commodities to one increasingly centred on industrialisation, technology transfer, and digital integration.

Read: Why Kenya should reset foreign policy messaging

Kenya is not just receiving goods—it is now building, assembling, and shaping them. Through initiatives under China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the broader Forum on China–Africa Cooperation, Kenya is being drawn into higher-value segments of the global production process.

This evolution aligns with the shifting needs of global manufacturers. As Western multinationals seek new production sites outside China, they often face a dilemma: alternative destinations may lack the logistics, labour capacity, or stability for long-term operations.

Kenya, by contrast, benefits from a growing network of Chinese-built roads, railways, and energy projects that lower the cost and complexity of doing business. Far from decoupling, this is a subtle reorientation, where China and its African partners form the next frontier of global supply chain resilience.

Moreover, Kenya’s green energy profile offers an additional competitive edge. With over 90% of its electricity coming from renewables—primarily geothermal, wind, and hydro—the country is well-positioned to attract investment from firms under increasing pressure to decarbonise.

China, a global leader in green technology, is already supporting Kenya’s transition through solar power projects, electric mobility solutions, and smart-grid systems. These are not acts of charity—they are investments in shared prosperity, guided by mutual interest and long-term alignment.

Critics of China’s role in Africa often focus on debt levels or perceived trade imbalances. But this narrative is overly simplistic. Like any sovereign nation, Kenya must continue to negotiate assertively to ensure transparency, local job creation, and sustainable financing.

At the same time, it is important to recognise the distinct value China brings—speed, scale, and a proven track record of delivering infrastructure that many Western donors only promise. The goal should not be to choose between East and West, but to leverage China’s strengths in ways that serve Kenya’s national development.

The emergence of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) further enhances the strategic rationale for Chinese investment in Kenya.

As supply chains become more regionalised, Kenya can serve as a manufacturing hub and a distribution gateway to a unified African market. Chinese firms, with their experience and capital, are already setting up light manufacturing facilities, logistics parks, and agro-processing plants across the country to tap into this opportunity.

While the West’s pivot toward “friendly” supply chains is driven by security concerns, Kenya’s priority must be development, not alignment. In that context, China’s approach, rooted in infrastructure, trade facilitation, and production, is not only practical but also well-matched to Kenya’s developmental needs.

Moreover, as China’s domestic economy matures and wages rise, outsourcing production to African partners like Kenya becomes not a diplomatic gesture, but a strategic economic choice.

In navigating this shifting global order, Kenya must continue to craft a non-aligned, multi-vector strategy—one that welcomes capital and technology from all quarters but remains laser-focused on local value addition and long-term competitiveness. Within that strategy, a deeper and more sophisticated partnership with China can act as a catalyst for the country’s industrial transformation.

The world may be decoupling, but Kenya should be coupling: strategically, deliberately, and with its own priorities at the centre. If global supply chains are truly being rebuilt, let Kenya be not just a link, but a vital and value-adding node. And in that effort, a well-managed partnership with China offers not a risk, but a remarkable opportunity.

The writer is a journalist and communications consultant