East Africa should seize the trade moment in changing global order

At this year’s GTR East Africa 2025 Conference in Nairobi, I participated in a timely panel discussion under the theme “Trade Growth and Infrastructure Investment: East Africa’s Opportunity to Thrive in the New World Order.”

The conversation could not have come at a more critical moment.

The global economy is in transition. Long-standing trade assumptions are being redefined, and traditional rules of engagement are shifting. In 2023 alone, G20 nations introduced more than 1,160 new trade restrictions (Global Trade Alert, 2023).

Climate-linked regulations are reshaping access to international markets. Official development assistance is declining, and multilateral climate finance remains uncertain. Tariff regimes are increasingly fragmented and politicised.

These developments demand a fundamental rethinking of how Africa positions itself within the global economic order.

For East Africa, this global reset presents not a threat, but a catalytic opportunity to reimagine trade. According to the UN Trade and Development, although the region contributes only two to three percent of global trade, it is disproportionately exposed to global shocks. From tariff changes to adverse climate impacts, East Africa faces significant vulnerabilities.

However, these pressures are also prompting the region to pursue more resilient, agile, and self-determined trade systems.

Africa must now move decisively. Business as usual is no longer tenable. Digitisation and automation have transformed global trade.

Tightening regulations, shifting funding models, and climate imperatives have rendered sustainability and compliance essential.

European Union regulations on labour standards, deforestation, and carbon emissions are compelling African producers to meet new thresholds or risk exclusion from essential global markets. These are no longer future threats but present realities.

In this context, smart and sustainable trade systems are not optional. They are critical tools for competitiveness and survival. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is central to this transformation. If implemented in the EAC, it could unlock over $1.9 billion in additional trade annually.

Read: Africa must fix fragmented fintech regulations to scale up innovation

The AfCFTA offers a pathway from fragmented markets to coordinated trade corridors, and from the export of raw goods to value-added production. Its Digital Trade Protocol could radically shift Africa’s trade trajectory by enabling the seamless movement of goods, services, and data. Prioritise its ratification and implementation.

Immediate ratification and implementation of this protocol must be prioritised.

To realise this vision, we must strengthen the foundations of modern trade: efficient logistics, digital systems, and enabling policy. Over the past 15 years, TradeMark Africa, in partnership with governments, has supported digitisation and automation across customs, standards, and border agencies.

One-stop border posts and automated cargo tracking have reduced clearance times by up to 70 percent and lowered trade costs by 40 percent. These improvements help businesses access markets, reduce spoilage, increase revenues, and build resilience. Our interventions in trade infrastructure have focused on practical outcomes.

Programmes such as the Business Environment and Export Enhancement Programme (BEEEP) are enabling traders and regulators to comply with international standards, including those of the European Union.

Digital platforms such as the Trade Logistics Information Pipeline (TLIP) and the Trade Worldwide Information Network (TWIN) are transforming how trade data is shared, offering secure, real-time exchanges with verifiable accuracy. These innovations promote efficiency, predictability, and trust within the trade ecosystem.

But trade systems are only part of the solution. Trade must work for people. Platforms like iSOKO are linking over 100,000 small-scale traders many of them women to new markets, building their confidence and reducing vulnerabilities.

In landlocked countries such as Zambia, digital payment systems are making cross-border trade more seamless and cost-effective, particularly for informal and micro-enterprises. These interventions are dismantling barriers that have long excluded marginalised groups from formal trade.

The continent’s youth will be central to this transition. Over 60 percent of Africa’s population is under the age of 25 (World Bank, 2023).

This generation is digitally literate, ambitious, and fast-moving.

They are not simply responding to global changes-they are driving them. Their adoption of AI, predictive analytics, and e-commerce platforms is pushing institutions to modernise. Their energy and creativity are shaping new trade realities, and we must match their pace.

A failure to do so risks sidelining the very demographic that holds Africa’s competitive edge.

Industrialisation will also need to evolve. Two centuries after the industrial revolutions in Europe, the UK, and the US, Africa stands at the cusp of a new model that is green, inclusive, and future-focused.

Trade Catalyst Africa, a blended finance vehicle by TradeMark Africa, is helping to finance this vision. Through investments in green industrial parks, climate-smart transport, and smart logistics hubs, the continent is demonstrating that economic growth and environmental sustainability are not mutually exclusive.

These interventions offer scalable models for industrialisation that prioritise low emissions, job creation, and regional value chains.

On the other hand, policy reform must align with these ambitions. The African Union’s Digital Trade Protocol must be urgently ratified.

Outdated non-tariff barriers and restrictive digital policies should be removed. Commercial solutions that burden traders with unnecessary costs and procedures must be reassessed.

Governments must ensure that borders function as gateways, not choke points. Political leadership and coordinated policy action are essential to removing structural bottlenecks and unlocking regional potential.

East Africa has already shown this capacity through the Single Customs Territory and the expansion of Authorised Economic Operator schemes. These are replicable success stories. Scaling them requires sustained commitment from public institutions, private sector actors, and development partners. We must focus on what works, build what is missing, and sustain what delivers lasting impact.

The message from the GTR East Africa 2025 Conference is clear: this is our moment. The conditions are in place to build a more connected, competitive, and climate-conscious trade future.

With focus, collaboration, and political will, East Africa can define what modern trade for all looks like-not only for Africa but for the world. If we get this right, we do more than open markets. We open possibilities for jobs, innovation, stability, and shared prosperity.

The writer is a Deputy CEO and Chief of Programmes, TradeMark Africa