Recent news coverage on President William Ruto’s forthcoming trip to China leans heavily on the idea that Kenya's foreign policy could be shifting alliances from one major global power to the other.
This is primarily a reaction in trying to understand the roughshod style of Trumpian diplomacy that has infused significant uncertainty and “Liberation Day” tariffs that have sparked off a global trade war with China.
Unfortunately, this fails to recognise Kenya’s own agency in geopolitical manoeuvres and evolving pragmatic outlook especially with the ongoing foreign policy review process being debated in Parliament.
Geopolitically, this pragmatism means that the country must strike a delicate balancing act between navigating the American mandate for global leadership, the unyielding Chinese response to it within an increasingly uncertain multipolar world and still pivot towards its own ambitions of being a crucial part of processes toward championing African continental prosperity.
Analysts mistake the good working relationship between President Ruto and the previous US Ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman, immediately after his election to high office, for a complete sidelining of China.
This is despite his participation in the Belt and Road Initiative Summit in October 2023 and the Forum on China and African Cooperation in September 2024, in which together with his African counterparts he signed onto Africa Ten Point Partnership Action Plan.
China has shown no interest in a need for a Kenyan shift in allegiance towards it.
This is because it understands that its relations with Kenya are founded mostly on “strategic partnership, common understandings, and practical cooperation in all areas” as highlighted by Chinese envoy to Kenya Ambassador Guo Haiyan.
Borrowing from its own development journey, China understands that Kenya must find its own version of Chairman Deng Xiaoping’s “white cat or black cat that will catch the rat” theory. Therefore, it has no problem with the idea that the country must balance west, east, north, or southern alliances that will help it transform itself accordingly.
Consequently, Kenyan expectations should be more about seeing whether President Ruto and Kenyan officialdom led by its Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, will come to a meeting of minds inclined towards the Chinese shifting preference for small and beautiful project financing as a new development pathway.
Kenya would do well to negotiate with President Xi Jinping based on respect for how the Chinese system works. This is best done by projecting, building, and assuring long-term trust plus professionalism as opposed to ideological diplomatic conduct especially now, in times such as these of an ongoing trade tiff with the US.
Secondly, as China’s outstretched offer to Africa will provide connectivity, green energy, welfare, and livelihood projects with one hand while the other offers medical specialists, agriculture experts, military personnel and police officers, Kenya should be quick to understand the cultural exchange that is aspired to within this generosity.
This is because its counterpart has a general need to understand Africa better to contribute effectively to the overall continental transformation agenda benefiting individual citizens.
Its efforts should, therefore, not simply look at this diplomatic endeavour as an attempt to quickly clinch deals on mega infrastructure projects but a venture that also addresses the accompanying economic ecosystems that are linked to such initiatives.
Projects such as rural electrification connections and mini grid transmission lines accompanying mega projects while infusing green technologies, such as solar power, would be a welcome consideration in coming to an agreement.
This is because as China diversifies its project financing and adopts risk-sharing modelling, it is in search of a working African model that will showcase its emergent climate leadership plus align better with impactful development needs that will invigorate commercial prosperity at local levels for structural transformation.
The author is the Chief Executive of the International Relations Society of Kenya (IRSK) and Regional Coordinator of the East African Tax and Governance Network (EATGN). Follow @lennwanyama
