As one of Kenya’s most vital staples, maize is the lifeblood of many households and the foundation of a significant portion of our economy.
Its importance cannot be overstated: Kenyans consume approximately four million bags of maize monthly, translating to 48 million bags annually, with a staggering value of around Sh250 billion, positioning maize as our most traded commodity. However, the reality of maize production tells a different—and alarming—story.
Yearly, maize production hovers at about 20 to 30 million bags, creating an average deficit of 18 million bags, a gap that increasingly threatens food security in our nation.
Strikingly, this statistic is often distorted by commingling imported maize from neighbouring countries like Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi, and Zambia with local production figures. While the government reported of bumper harvests in 2024, the ground reality is contradictory, suggesting we stand on the precipice of a serious maize shortage.
Recent market trends indicate prices at the farm gate have soared to Sh4,000 per bag from Sh2,500 in September 2024, a stark reminder of the impending crisis.
This situation has been intensified by regional dynamics. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, plagued by drought in the 2023/2024 season, has forced many countries—including South Africa—to turn toward Tanzania for maize imports.
With Tanzania focusing its surplus on SADC countries, Kenya’s supply lines are becoming increasingly strained. Our reliance on these regional imports culminates in a precarious situation where, without immediate intervention, Kenyans could soon witness flour prices soaring past the Sh200 mark.
The situation is exacerbated in multiplicity of levies and charges by government bodies at border points. These government agencies despite not having laboratories at the border points, they charge exorbitant amounts to conduct similar tests.
For instance, Kephis ("check" moisture and plant inspection), Kebs (moisture ,quality and aflatoxin test), Bio safety (moisture), Afa (Moisture), Port health (moisture and quality), Kentrade 1600( UCR for documentation).
The same is replicated by other East African Community partners. The system is just extractive with no value addition to anyone other than tax coffers.
What went wrong? The metrics we rely on to measure maize production versus consumption are often grounded in shaky foundations.
The National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) has become ineffective, with many storage facilities across the country standing empty, while private entities reap the benefits of any meager grain reserves.
The government’s attempt to motivate farmers to deliver maize at Sh3,500 per bag has yielded disappointing results, with only a handful of farmers responding. In contrast, Tanzania has effectively mobilised its maize farmers, creating substantial stockpiles in their National Strategic Reserves.
Moreover, competition for maize from various sectors—people, livestock (both silage and dry animal feeds), and the market for green maize—results in a significant waste of potential food resources.
Once farmers are equipped with affordable fertilisers, it is crucial that they utilise those inputs effectively, channeling their production capabilities toward dry grain rather than green maize.
This means adopting Good Agricultural Practices that are sorely needed; after all, Kenya’s maize yields of just 8 to 15 bags per acre significantly trail behind Ethiopia’s yield of 30 to 35 bags per acre.
Underlying all of this is a preoccupation with white non-GMO maize rooted in tradition and unresolved conversations, contributing to our vulnerability.
The irony is stark: while Kenya clings to non-GMO foods, countries like Europe and the US are the leading producers of GMO maize— If Tanzania’s supplies dwindle before our next harvest in August/September 2025, we may witness one of our most serious food crises to date.
To avert this looming catastrophe, Kenya must adopt a multifaceted strategy addressing critical areas such as production efficiency, storage, and strategic reserves.
Our agricultural policies must shift to embrace flexibility, innovation, and resilience, promoting the adoption of best practices and ensuring sustainable practices are at the forefront of food production.
Additionally, the government must spearhead transparency in production data, fostering trust and collaboration across the agricultural spectrum.
As professionals in the agriculture sector, we must advocate for an immediate, coordinated response that safeguards our maize supply chain. The time has come for action, not complacency—a call for prudent policy shifts, enhanced farmer support, and a commitment to fostering regional collaboration.
Without a proactive approach, the looming maize crisis may transform from a predictor to a reality, leaving millions hungry and impacting our economy for years to come. The outcome rests in our hands, and we must act decisively.
The writer is a public policy expert and former CEO, Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM)
