Recalibrating Kenya’s global ties in changing world order

In less than a year, President William Ruto will visit China at the invitation of President Xi Jinping. This visit comes at a time when Nairobi is keen on pursuing long-term national interests that ensure Kenya's sustained well-being.

President Ruto is the only African leader granted a State visit to China this year—an indication of the high regard Beijing holds for Nairobi, especially amid a rapidly shifting global landscape.

These changes are fuelled, in part, by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs and a general trend toward protectionism. The current environment is marked by geopolitical uncertainty, market volatility, and the emergence of an increasingly multipolar world order.

The resurgence of reciprocal tariffs and inward-looking economic policies has sent ripples through global supply chains and trade relations.

For countries in the Global South like Kenya, these dynamics present new challenges, necessitating the diversification of partnerships and the strengthening of strategic ties with reliable global actors.

This makes Ruto's visit to Beijing particularly significant—China remains an economic powerhouse and a long-standing development partner.

Read: Kenya’s economic challenges and some lessons from China’s recovery

Looking back at Kenya's development, major flagship projects like the standard gauge railway (SGR) and the Nairobi Expressway underscore China's pivotal role.

Strengthening ties with Beijing is crucial to unlocking further opportunities and steering Kenya's economy away from potential stagnation.

Collaborating closely with China does not imply sidelining other development partners. Rather, it's about strategically positioning all partners as Kenya deepens its practice of economic diplomacy. Given Kenya's position as a gateway to East Africa, the government should leverage its 61-year relationship with China to tap into new opportunities.

Although the Kenya Kwanza administration has maintained a neutral stance in global affairs—helpful in shielding the country from potential sanctions or diplomatic isolation—accessing development funding from the West is more difficult.

Western aid often comes with stringent requirements, especially under transactional administrations like Trump's, and fiscal constraints limit the space for impactful projects. As such, turning to the East becomes a pragmatic necessity.

China's funding mechanism is notably different from that of the US American aid or loans typically require Congressional approval and are often tied to numerous conditions including human rights, transparency, and debt sustainability. In contrast, China follows a more flexible, request-based model that emphasizes negotiated outcomes.

While Chinese-funded projects have sparked debate—especially around debt sustainability and transparency—they also highlight Beijing's readiness to invest in Africa's future. Strengthening this relationship offers Kenya a realistic path to harnessing global capital and expertise, especially when many Western partners are turning inward.

This visit is expected to unlock funding for the long-overdue extension of the SGR to Malaba. China’s commitment to addressing Africa’s $100 billion annual infrastructure deficit stands in contrast to the limited contributions from Northern countries.

The Sino-Kenya relationship, upgraded to a strategic partnership, has yielded tangible results—unlike some Western engagements which often focus more on soft development aspects.

Read: Ruto’s looking West foreign policy misses out on key historical lessons

In today’s challenging global environment—shaped by tariffs, competition, and realignment—countries in the Global South that rely on raw exports must seek partnerships that deliver hard infrastructure and economic independence.

The “debt trap” narrative pushed by some countries that have failed to invest significantly in Africa oversimplifies the continent's development strategies. Sino-Kenya relations are based on a win-win model, and China's request-based financing allows recipient nations to define their priorities.

If the SGR extension ends up being a bad deal, the fault lies with Kenya’s negotiating team—led by Treasury Cabinet secretary John Mbadi and President Ruto’s economic advisers , including Dr David Ndii—not with China.

It is also important to note that while the US and some Western nations continue to impose trade barriers, China remains one of the world's fastest-growing consumer markets.

Deepening trade ties with China—through tariff reductions, capacity-building for exporters, and improved sanitary standards—could significantly boost Kenya's exports. Products such as tea, coffee, macadamia nuts, avocados, and flowers are already gaining traction among China's 1.4 billion consumers.

China also possesses vast experience in developing industrial parks. As the Ruto administration prioritizes industrialisation in several counties, Kenya has a chance to position itself as a regional manufacturing and logistics hub for Chinese enterprises seeking to mitigate risks linked to geopolitical instability and US tariffs.

By offering stable investment zones, special economic areas, and supportive industrial policies, Kenya can attract Chinese manufacturers looking to diversify beyond Asia. This will not only generate employment but also facilitate technology and skills transfer—enhancing local capacity and innovation.

The long-term benefits of this kind of cooperation include reduced dependency on imports, improved trade balances, and a more resilient domestic economy.

In a world increasingly shaped by competition, tariffs, and shifting alliances, Kenya's greatest asset is not allegiance—but agency. The future of the country will not be dictated solely by global power dynamics, but by how wisely it navigates them.

The key lies not in choosing sides, but in crafting mutually beneficial, transparent, and forward-looking partnerships.

The writer is a journalist and communications consultant