Conflicts threaten globalisation gains

Some of us have witnessed the world shift from colonialism, through the cold war, to globalisation, and finally to the current situation of seemingly out of control conflicts in mostly Muslim countries.

From observations, the latest conflicts have the potential to derail the gains of globalisation as countries across the world institute protective and restrictive policies to minimise impacts from the wars.

However, what is disturbing is the sheer magnitude of loss of innocent human life, desperate refugees, and fatalities while crossing the Mediterranean Sea to seek asylum.

There is an apparent helplessness and unwillingness by the world to redress the situation.

Any conflict has direct and indirect impact on the rest of the world. For this reason, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) should be of concern to all of us.

The impact of these conflicts is being felt in Europe, Africa, North America and even as far as Australia.

The wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Northern Nigeria and Afghanistan have the potential to spread and destabilise neighbourhoods, making them regional conflict zones.

Conflicts sap energy and resources that should otherwise be directed to economic development. And we are already feeling it here in East Africa.
The United Nations appears ineffective in both preventing and resolving these global conflicts.

This may be due to a stalemate among the five permanent members of the Security Council — USA, France, UK, Russia, and China. The five “veto” members are often perceived as influenced by political and economic self-interests, denying them the objectivity and neutrality to handle global conflicts.

This is further complicated by the political, ethnic and religious factors in most of these conflicts.

Over the years, these factors have become more complicated. This has often led to an attitude of “leave Muslim conflicts to Muslim countries to sort out” among major powers.

The US may have learned the hard way from experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan to adapt this attitude.

However, the ISIS agenda calls for the attention of all nations. ISIS can mutate and result in an unprecedented global spill-over.

Last week ISIS surfaced in Afghanistan, and the next destination is an obvious guess. We have previously tended to see the Mena conflicts from the point of view of global energy supply security.

A perceived geo-political instability in an oil producing nation would automatically trigger speculative oil price increases.

By a sheer coincidence, these conflicts are happening when the world is awash with oil and gas supplies. Production shortfalls from Libya are hardly being felt.

However, the war situation in Yemen should not be taken lightly. It can easily disrupt oil and gas supply through the Suez Canal to Europe.

The Ukrainian conflict that took centre-stage last year appears to be cooling down as the negotiated ceasefire holds. The ceasefire may free Western nations to focus more on what is happening in the Mena region.

The impact of economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West in respect to the Ukrainian crisis is already creating global trade re-alignments.

Some of these trade shifts may translate into permanent re-arrangements especially in areas of energy supply. The EU and Russia are no doubt working on long term measures to secure their economic and political interests.

It is interesting to note that all the five UN members have actively participated in the search for a solution to the Iranian nuclear stalemate.

There was an obvious convergence of purpose and interest among the five veto members in seeking solutions that can avert a potentially dangerous nuclear crisis in the Middle East.

As correctly observed by experts, a nuclear war in the region can easily explode into a major global conflict.

Here in Kenya, the impact of the Somali based Al-Shabaab is already diverting national attention and resources while negatively affecting a number of socio-economic activities including tourism.

Collective responsibility

While we seek regional solutions, we must appreciate that it is a collective responsibility to participate in safeguarding our security.

Yes, the government has the primary responsibility and mandate to offer security which it must correctly and fully execute.

What we should avoid is allowing politics to stand in the way of our search for early and conclusive security. However, positive and actionable suggestions on security should be freely welcome from whatever quarters.

We should acknowledge that perpetrators of terror will endeavour to be several steps ahead of us. It is for the security organs to keep ahead and not lag behind the terror schemers. Only then can we minimise the number and severity of terrorist actions

Through a comprehensive and expert security risk assessment, we should identify the most vulnerable and sensitive installations and institutions that we must secure with extra measures.

Mr Wachira is the director, Petroleum Focus Consultants. [email protected]