US President Donald Trump's demand for Ukraine’s rare earth metals in exchange for American military assistance represents a classic case of transactional diplomacy, which now defines Washington’s foreign policy—raising concerns, particularly for Global South nations, including Africa.
For decades, African countries have been recipients of US aid. However, with the Trump administration freezing long-standing financial assistance, African nations must now seek alternative strategies.
They must leverage their vast raw materials to achieve self-reliance and explore partnerships with more reliable development allies.
If Trump is willing to impose transactional diplomacy on traditional allies such as the European Union (EU), Africa will certainly not be exempt. This has already been demonstrated by his executive order halting foreign aid to South Africa over its land reform policies and its stance on Israel’s war in Gaza.
This shift in US foreign policy comes at a crucial time for Africa, as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) is set to expire later this year. Whether Trump will renew Agoa or use it as a bargaining tool to pressure African nations remains uncertain.
Since its enactment in 2000, Agoa has been at the heart of US-Africa trade relations, granting duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products from eligible sub-Saharan African countries. However, with Trump’s 'America First' stance, African nations must prepare for potential disruptions, similar to the abrupt shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development (USAid).
Trump has already called for an investigation into the impact of "non-reciprocal trade arrangements" on the US economy, signaling a move toward a more protectionist trade policy.
His "fair and reciprocal" trade plan aims to impose equivalent tariffs on trading partners that apply "unfair, discriminatory, or extraterritorial taxes" on US businesses. This could significantly impact African nations that impose various levies on imported goods.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced this stance, stating, “Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified by three simple questions: Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?” This suggests that Washington will no longer enter trade agreements unless they directly benefit the US, placing ongoing negotiations between Nairobi and Washington at risk.
Given America’s pivot toward transactional diplomacy, African countries must diversify their economic strategies. One viable alternative is deeper engagement with BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which collectively boasts a GDP of over $60 trillion and controls 45 percent of global oil production.
African nations should also prioritise regional trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a market of 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP of $2.5 trillion.
By strengthening intra-African trade and reducing reliance on external partners, AfCFTA could shield African economies from global trade disruptions.
Additionally, African nations must move up the value chain by exporting more processed goods instead of raw materials, thereby reducing vulnerability to price fluctuations and fostering sustainable economic growth.
For Global South economies, which heavily rely on raw material exports, disruptions in global supply chains pose significant risks. Protectionism and trade wars often hit these nations hardest, as they lack the infrastructure to compete in high-value-added industries.
To mitigate such shocks, these economies must enhance internal growth drivers, build economic resilience, and explore alternative trade partnerships.
With multilateralism gaining traction worldwide, there is little room for protectionism. Trump’s policies should be carefully scrutinized, as disruptions in the global supply chain could have widespread economic consequences. Moving forward, global leaders must prioritize consensus-building and cooperation to address the economic challenges of the 21st century.
Protectionism is once again on the rise, and the Global South must adapt strategically, recognizing economic shifts and proactively strengthening its resilience. By fostering sustainable economic policies, African nations can better navigate the evolving global trade landscape.
The writer is a journalist and communication consultant
