Kenya’s US market access options if the Agoa renewal bid fails

May 18, 2025, marked the 25th anniversary of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). For a quarter of a century, this programme has been at the heart of US economic policy and commercial engagement with Africa, offering duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products from eligible sub-Saharan countries.

Unknown to many, Agoa is not a trade agreement. Trade agreements are negotiated between two or more countries and involve reciprocal market access on preferential terms.

Agoa is a US legislation. Its preferences are unilateral and non-reciprocal. This means the US government sets the eligibility criteria, determines product coverage, and enforces compliance.

There’s no dispute resolution mechanism. And if a country falls afoul of the rules, the US can - and does - revoke access. Uganda, for example, was removed from the programne in 2024 for "gross violations of internationally recognised human rights" after they passed a harsh anti-homosexuality law.

Kenya has been one of Agoa’s biggest beneficiaries. According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, US imports from Kenya totaled $737.3 million in 2024, a significant portion of which came under Agoa preferences.

But as we mark Agoa’s silver jubilee, its future hangs in the balance. The legislation is set to expire on September 30, 2025. Originally enacted for eight years, Agoa has been extended twice; the last time in 2015 under President Barack Obama.

Today, while bills to renew the programme are in both chambers of Congress, they’ve gained little traction. President Donald Trump administration’s disruptive approach to the global, rules-based trading system casts a long shadow. Whether Agoa will be renewed remains uncertain.

In the absence of Agoa, countries like Kenya will have to rely on the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) - another non-reciprocal trade scheme launched by UNCTAD in 1971 to help developing countries integrate into the global economy. But GSP requires authorisation by the US Congress, and its last authorisation expired in 2020.

If neither Agoa nor GSP is available, trade between the US and sub-Saharan Africa would revert to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff rates - the standard terms that apply to all World Trade Organisation members.

MFN means no country can be treated better than others unless there's a formal trade agreement in place. So, for instance, if the US imposes a five percent tariff on shoes from one WTO member, it must impose the same rate on all others - no exemptions, no preferences.

Read: Value of Kenya exports to US rebounds 23pc ahead of Agoa expiry

Losing Agoa would be a serious blow. Kenya’s textile and apparel industry, which earned Sh60.6 billion in 2024 through exports under Agoa, according to the 2025 Economic Survey, could be thrown into jeopardy.

Thousands of jobs hang in the balance. Across the region, countries would lose the competitive edge that these preferential programmes have afforded them.

President Trump often speaks of his prowess in negotiation, his “art of the deal.” Now is the time for sub-Saharan African countries to channel their own deal-making energy.

With the September deadline fast approaching, it’s imperative they double down on efforts to secure an extension of Agoa. Alternatively, individual nations or regional economic communities like the East African Community could explore bilateral free trade agreements with the US, following the path Morocco has taken. To date, Morocco remains the only African country with such an agreement in place.

Agoa's 25th birthday may well be its last unless urgent, strategic action is taken to ensure it sees another.

The writer is an Advocate of the High Court.