Why Kenya should reset foreign policy messaging

Kenya’s recent diplomatic moves have been under scrutiny, with both a few successes and major missteps, as the country navigates a complex global order.

Following President William Ruto’s remarks in China, which emphasised Kenya’s peacefulness compared to its neighbours, and the abrupt cancellation of a planned US delegation visit, questions have emerged about the delicate balancing act Nairobi must perform between Beijing and Washington.

Moreover, the recent meeting between Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio illuminates the importance of recalibrating our foreign policy approach to maintain credibility and strategic advantage.

As I earlier argued regarding Kenya’s diplomatic gaffes, strategic coherence in foreign policy is not optional; it is essential.

Over the last two decades, Kenya’s relationship with China has grown significantly, with high-profile infrastructure projects and rising trade flows.

However, President Ruto’s remarks in Beijing, framing Kenya as the peaceful outlier compared to its neighbours, risk being interpreted not just as a diplomatic faux pas, but also as a shift towards an exclusive embrace of China.

This comes at a sensitive time when Kenya is trying to navigate its relationships with Washington and Beijing.

The cancellation of a senior US delegation visit, just after Ruto’s China remarks, raises questions about the broader diplomatic consequences. If there is a rift, the timing of such a shift couldn’t be more precarious.

Kenya has historically enjoyed strong ties with both China and the US, each offering different forms of support—trade, investment, and security cooperation. However, these remarks and the subsequent diplomatic friction suggest that Kenya’s positioning is beginning to look more like a tug-of-war between two superpowers.

Read: Strengthening Kenya’s foreign policy after diplomatic missteps

The failure to strike a careful balance could diminish Kenya’s influence on the world stage.

Mudavadi’s meeting with Rubio should be seen as a key moment for restoring the confidence of Washington in Kenya’s diplomatic strategy.

In these talks, the US Secretary of State would have emphasised the importance of Kenya maintaining its traditional ties with the West, particularly in global security, trade agreements like the African Growth and Opportunity Act, and counterterrorism initiatives.

This dialogue signals that while Kenya’s engagement with China is important, it must not overshadow its longstanding partnership with the US, nor compromise its regional leadership role.

Regionally, President Ruto’s comment about Kenya being “peaceful” in comparison to its neighbours could have lasting repercussions on its relations with its East African counterparts. Kenya’s role as a mediator in regional conflicts, from South Sudan to Somalia, hinges on its neutrality and collaborative approach.

By positioning itself as superior or different from its neighbours, even subtly, Kenya risks jeopardising the very diplomatic capital it has built over decades.

The regional perception of Kenya’s leadership could be damaged, especially as we approach crucial talks and agreements within the African Union and East African Community.

The need for recalibration is urgent. This is not an isolated incident but part of a growing pattern of missteps, such as the Sudan RSF engagement, which highlight the importance of thoughtful, strategic diplomacy.

Kenya must avoid hasty decisions rooted in symbolism or immediate political gains. Instead, we need a more structured, institutionalised approach to foreign policy that involves consultation across key ministries, security agencies, and diplomatic circles.

The leadership should not rely solely on the whims of individual political figures, but should instead foster a system where decisions are informed by collective wisdom and strategic goals.

Kenya’s historical belief in its exceptionalism, as a beacon of peace, democracy, and economic growth, is valid. Yet, exceptionalism must be balanced with caution and discipline in foreign relations.

Without it, Kenya risks diminishing its regional influence and global credibility.

A recalibrated foreign policy must empower key institutions such as the Foreign Affairs ministry and diplomatic advisory panels to play a more central role.

It should prioritise risk assessments and ensure that every diplomatic engagement is well thought out, aligned with national interests, and transparent in its execution.

The inclusion of key players, like Mudavadi’s recent engagement with Rubio, is vital for ensuring that all diplomatic moves are grounded in a broader institutional framework that considers domestic and international implications.

The time has come for Kenya to move beyond its traditional view of foreign policy as a tool for symbolic gestures and regional prestige.
We must embrace a multi-vector approach to diplomacy, focusing on strengthening ties with China and the US while not neglecting the strategic importance of regional relations.

Kenya’s future lies in its ability to engage with both sides without leaning too heavily towards one. If the Ruto administration can balance these competing pressures, Kenya’s diplomatic future will be brighter, with stronger and more sustainable international partnerships.

The writer is a foreign policy analyst and holds an MSc in African Studies from the University of Oxford. Email: [email protected]